U.S. IMET Participation and the Outcome and Duration of Insurgencies

摘要

The United States has provides international military education and training (U.S. IMET) to military personnel from more than 100 countries annually. In spite of this, the effects of such training have received limited study in international relations literature. This article explores how these programmes affect the outcome and duration of insurgencies. It theorises that military education and training received in the U.S. improves the human capital of recipient state militaries. This improvement makes the overall military forces of incumbent governments more capable and effective in their fights against insurgents, leading to increased probabilities of government victories. This analysis also argues that improvement in incumbent governments' military capabilities incentivizes insurgents to disperse, hide, and not engage government forces in open battles, resulting in prolonged conflicts. The statistical analysis of a new, merged dataset including detailed information on insurgencies and U.S. IMET participation between 1976 and 2003 supports both arguments.