Selecting a Portfolio of Technologies: An Application of Decision Analysis

摘要

The Department of Energy is faced with the critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focuses on developing a decision support tool which assists the decision maker to find an optimal portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting a technology for each process so that the decision maker's objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives are risk, life-cycle cost, and time required for remediation. The model uses exponential attribute utility functions with an additive objective function. The model provides the decision maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and their associated utility. Cumulative frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance in the results. The model permits sensitivity analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better informed decisions and may be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the remediation process.