Further studies on epidemiological factors influencing control of banana bunchy top disease and evaluation of control measures by computer simulation

摘要

The basic infection rate of bunchy top disease in established bananas averaged 0.0342 new infections per infectious plant per day, but varied seasonally with a maximum in summer. The mean distance of spread for the aphid vector was 15.2 m. The latent period was 59.8 days and correlated with the time required for the growth of 3.7 new banana leaves. A microcomputer program was written to simulate spread of banana bunchy top disease in space and time. In the absence of disease control, disease spread from an initial primary infection in July or January to 124 or 153 infected plants, respectively, in one year. When disease control was maintained by removing diseased plants whenever the number of infected plants exceeded a given threshold, the numbers of diseased plants detected each inspection were positively correlated with the infection threshold, but the numbers of inspections required to maintain control increased markedly as the infection threshold was decreased. A practice of removing apparently healthy plants within 5 m of plants detected with bunchy top disease symptoms in five or more leaves was found to locate about 30% of the remaining undetected infected plants when disease was first detected in a plantation. However, its use as a routine control measure was ineffective in reducing the number of inspections required to maintain control or in reducing the risk of disease spreading to adjoining plantations. Removal of apparently healthy plants within 5 m had some bearing on disease control when applied around plants with disease symptoms in two leaves or less, but also caused a significant loss of healthy plants.