November Surprise: CQWW CW Contest Conditions Much Better Than Predicted

摘要

Sometimes the ionosphere surprises us, and sometimes that's good! I predicted poor to fair conditions for both contest days for the 2016 CQWW CW Contest starting at 0000 UTC, Saturday, November 26 and continuing until 2400 UTC, Sunday, November 27. I postulated that the Planetary A-index (A_p) would start at 15 and climb to 25 on day two. The 2016 CQ Worldwide DX CW Contest weekend was much better than predicted. The A_p on the first day was 12, falling to 10 by the second day of the contest. The high-latitude A-index was 22 and 12, making over-the-pole propagation paths mostly reliable. The Planetary K-index never got above three. With such quiet geomagnetic conditions, weaker signals are more likely to be heard on those bands where openings are weak yet present. Stable ionospheric conditions allow weak signals to propagate reliably.