DSS-PL: Decision Support System for Risk Assessment of Pipeline Projects

摘要

Schedule overrun and cost overrun arc critical factors that might cause failure or stoppage of construction projects leading to claims between owners and contractors. It is very important to asses the risks, associated with construction projects, during planning phase to avoid such problems. This article presents a decision support system (DSS-PL) dedicated for risk assessment in pipeline projects. The developed system consists of four main components: input module, multi-attribute utility module (MAU-PL), Bayesian belief network module (BBN-PL), and reporting module. These four components are integrated and coded using Microsoft~® Visual Basic™ Version 6.0 programming language. A list of 26 attributes, which greatly influence the schedule and cost overruns in pipeline projects, were selected and considered as input attributes for the system. These attributes are clustered in five main criteria; job conditions, resources, project parties, area conditions, and project scope. The multi-attribute utility module estimates the weighted utility values for those criteria which are fed to the Bayesian belief network module. The schedule and cost overruns are estimated by applying the probability assessment. The article also analyzes the impact of changing input attributes on the estimated overruns by conducting a sensitivity analysis. A case study is presented to validate the system and illustrate its main features and capabilities.