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2009 Economic Outlook

机译:2009年经济展望

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The commercial construction boom that began in the spring of 2004 ended in the middle of last year due to the worldwide collapse of the credit bubble and accompanying recession that quickly cut demand for additional space. The latest building cycle was stopped by problems in the economy several years short of the usual end due to overbuilding. In comparison, the previous building boom of 1994 to 2000 persisted for 6Vi years. So, the downside of the building cycle is likely to be relatively short, unlike the 3Vi-year real estate bust experienced earlier in this decade.rnThe construction outlook abruptly soured in the second half of 2008. Spending for non-residential construction expanded at a 12% annual pace from July 2004 to July 2008, then growth dropped to less than a 6% pace through October 2008, with declining spending now expected through late 2009.rnPrivate commercial construction got the quickest and hardest hit from the credit freeze. The value of starts in October 2008 plunged 44% from September 2008 for the sum of hotel, office, retail, and warehouse. Projects ready to start were held up to redo financing and/or wait for a clearer view of the recession's scale.
机译:2004年春季开始的商业建筑热潮在去年年中结束,原因是信贷泡沫在全球范围内崩溃以及随之而来的经济衰退迅速削减了对额外空间的需求。最近的建筑周期因经济问题而推迟了,由于建筑过度,该问题比平时结束了几年。相比之下,1994年至2000年以前的建筑热潮持续了6Vi年。因此,与本十年初经历的3Vi年房地产泡沫破裂不同,建筑周期的下行时间可能相对较短。2008年下半年,建筑前景突然恶化。从2004年7月到2008年7月,年增长率为12%,然后到2008年10月,增长率下降到不足6%,现在预计到2009年末,支出将下降。私人商业建筑受到信贷冻结的打击最快和最严重。与2008年9月相比,2008年10月开业的酒店,办公室,零售和仓库的总价值下降了44%。准备开始的项目被推迟以重新筹集资金和/或等待对衰退规模的更清晰认识。

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