Time-frequency domain causality of prime building cost and macroeconomic indicators in Ghana: implications for project selection

摘要

According to the Ghana Statistical Service, construction activity generated US$3.8 billion in 2014, representing about 12.7% of nominal GDP. A key factor that most investors in the construction sector consider in project selection is cost which has escalated over the years. Therefore, we examine the co-movements and causality in the time and frequency domains between the prime building cost index (PBCI) and its disaggregates on one hand and inflation and exchange rate on the other hand in Ghana. The findings revealed that the degree of co-movement between PBCI and inflation was significant at the 5% level and occurred over the long-run, indicating that construction cost drives inflation. The degree of co-movement between the prime build cost index and exchange rate occurred within the short term. These co-movements have policy implications for substituting inflation and exchange rates in project costing by investors in Ghana. The co-movement between the PBCI and inflation in the medium to higher frequencies suggests that inflation risk-averse investors should consider short-term projects. Again, the short to medium frequency co-movements between the PBCI and exchange rate indicates that investors should consider exchange rate risk in long-term projects.