Scenario A - Lower Scenario

摘要

1. Economic recovery is slower than anticipated, with marginal fall in activity during 2011 due to the effects of public sector cuts on economic activity. In addition, indirectly the effect of public sector cuts on private sector activity also constrains economic growthrn2. Unemployment increases due to public sector job losses and the inability of private sector to absorb the public sector job losses leads to an increase in total unemploymentrn3. Lending to businesses deteriorates in the next 6-12 monthsrn4. Mortgage approvals only increase relatively slowlyrn5. Slower recovery in the general economy due to public spending cuts lead to a 5% 'second' fall in construction output during 2011 and 2012. From peak, construction output will have fallen 13% by the end of 2012 and no significant recovery until 2014.