SWITZERLAND

摘要

Household consumption has so far proven robust this year, with retail sales increasing by 7.4% (y-o-y) in May, supported by high levels of disposable income and a low rate of unemployment. With inflationary pressures rising, though, consumerand business confidence are starting to falter, indicating weakness in domestic demand ahead. Reflecting this, our panel expects consumption growth to slow to 1.7% in 2008. Meanwhile, a slowing global economy should moderate external demand. Consequently, growth is expected to weaken during the second half of 2008.