GERMANY

摘要

The Q4GDP estimate indicated a 0.3% (q-o-q) expansion and an annual growth rate of 1.5% for 2014. After a sluggish midyear when the summer slowdown threatened to push Germany into recession, a solid finish to 2014 raises optimism for a similarly resolute performance this year. Given Germany's heavy dependence on exports to drive growth, a strong lift in domestic consumption was vital to the end of year turnaround. Confidence in the labour market has been accompanied by a rapid decline in inflation which plunged into negative territory in January, at -0.3% (y-o-y). Consumers are also profiting from slumping energy prices which are positively influencing disposable income. Despite the turmoil surrounding the global economy, German exports accelerated on average by 3.7% in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013. Stronger ties with the United States and Britain boosted trade and hence another large current account surplus is anticipated for 2015 as the weak euro bolsters competitiveness. It may, however, fuel further confrontation with European Commission and US officials who have encouraged Germany to raise domestic spending and investment to help the Euro zone recovery, and reduce its large surpluses. Meanwhile, industrial production rose by a rather muted 0.1 % (m-o-m) in December, equalling November's revised figure. Our consensus anticipates a 1.7% rise in 2015, before a 2.4% jump in 2016.