FRANCE

摘要

President - Mr. Emmanuel Macron (LREM). Prime Minister - Mr. Jean Castex (LREM). Parliament - Mr. Macron's centrist La Republique en Marche (LREM) party currently has 271 out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. Next Elections - Presidential (two rounds): April/ May 2022. Nominal GDP - Euro2,427bn (2019). Population - 65.1 mn (mid-year, 2019). $/Euro. Exchange Rate - 1.119 (average, 2019).Despite renewed restrictions, data covering the January-April period has been broadly resilient, if mixed in places. A first look at Q1 2021 GDP showed a more-than-expected +0.4% (q-o-q) rise, though it was somewhat overshadowed by a -1.4% fall in Q4 2020. However, this, coupled with positive base-year effects, helped to bring the y-o-y rate for Q1 GDP into growth territory (+1.5%, after a-4.8% decline in the previous quarter). Domestic demand was the main driver, but household consumption (+0.3% q-o-q) was weighed down by Covid measures. Indeed, monthly consumption of goods ended March on a weak note for precisely this reason, falling by -1.1 % (m-o-m) following a 0.3% gain in February. By contrast, Q1 business investment actually accelerated from +1.1% (q-o-q) in the previous quarter to +2.3%. In times of economic crises, firms usually slash their spending, but stronger financial positions, backed by state support, may be helping here. April PMIs for manufacturing and services remained largely positive. Services saw a surge in new domestic orders amid optimism ahead of the much-anticipated reopening of the economy. Thereafter, the hope is that French households, which have accrued savings over the past year, will unleash pent-updemand. Our panel's forecasts for GDP and investment this year have both improved.