GERMANY

摘要

Chancellor - Mrs. Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Party or CDU). Parliament - A coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU union and the Social Democrats (SPD) was finalised on March 4, 2018. The CDU/CSU has the most seats (246) in the 709-seat Bundestag (lower house). Next Elections - 2021 (Bundestag). Nominal GDP - Euro 3,435bn (2019). Population -83.5mn (mid-year 2019). $/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.119 (average, 2019). Stronger consumer spending and exports have underlined signs of a fightback in German economic activity. After falling-6.5% (m-o-m) in April, retail sales climbed by +13.9% in May. Also impressive was the +3.8% increase in year-on-year terms, due to booming sales of food, household appliances and building supplies. A single month's data must be interpreted with caution, but has raised optimism that the inevitable GDP growth decline in Q2 could be less steep than anticipated. Exports turned positive again with a+9.0% (m-o-m) advance in May, although this only represented a partial rebound from the -24.0% collapse in April. In any case, the pace at which new business will return is highly uncertain across sectors, with many companies suspecting that an extensive recovery may not be forthcoming until 2021 The automotive sector is under pressure after data revealed a -35% fall in vehicle sales in the first half of the year. Experts warn that the unprecedented hit to the global car market could elongate supply chain issues, but that a focus on digitisation and investments in the electric revolution could preserve jobs further ahead. Much will also hinge on the financial state of households, the opening up of borders, and the degree to which the wider economy can keep job losses to a minimum.