Participation in IMF-sponsored economic programs and contentious collective action in Latin America, 1980-2007

摘要

This paper investigates the relationship between International Monetary Fund (IMF)-sponsored economic programs and contentious collective action in Latin America from 1980 to 2007, hypothesizing a positive relationship between participation in IMF programs and the likelihood of social protest. Specifically, we suggest that people in recipient countries protest the unpopular IMF mandates not only because of the negative effects that orthodox economic policies have on their livelihood, but mainly because they perceive a loss of legitimacy and question the sovereignty of their domestic governments. That is, deciding to participate in an IMF program can make governments more prone to being perceived as caving in to the pressures of international agents, increasing the likelihood of contentious collective action. Results from two-stage negative binomial selection models provide strong statistical support for our main hypothesis, remaining robust to different specifications of the second-stage equation and other procedures that correct for potential statistical problems.