Planning method of creative and collaborative design process with prediction model of technical performance and product integrity

摘要

This article proposes a new method of design process planning based on a growth curve model with a fuzzy number managing uncertain design progress. Because a product consists of many interdependent subsystems, an engineering design process consists of two different knowledge creation activities, that is, an activity to enhance the technical performance level of each subsystem, which is called task, and an activity to enhance the integrity level among the subsystems. This research models the progress of the technical performance and the integrity with the growth curve. A numerical design structure matrix is used to represent task dependency and collaboration efficiency. A design process plan is evaluated by the probability that the technical performance will achieve the target level of design target. A proposed method facilitates a project manager to explore various process plans, to assess their risks, and to decide better plans. A planning example of a student formula car design project demonstrates that a project manager can quantitatively compare alternative process plans and choose the better plan. That result shows the possibility of the proposed model toward an optimization of process planning.