Our methodology: The freight-rate forecasts shown in the tables are mainly based on projections of estimated average vessel utilisation in each trade lane, combined with other relevant circumstances. The fuller the ship, the more likely rates will rise and vice versa. Cargo forecasts are based on the latest information from all sources available to Containerisation International's editorial team. These will always be conservative, and only take account of normal seasonal variations. Fleet capacity information is derived from Lloyd's List Intelligence. Current shipboard capacity in each route is estimated by deducting space lost for broken stows and wayport cargo from the operating capacity offered on every vessel in that trade lane. This is projected forward by estimating where newbuildings are likely to be deployed, as well as where replaced vessels are likely to be cascaded into. Average vessel utilisation is simply one divided by the other. It should be noted, therefore, that the resulting freight rate trends only reflect what should theoretically happen if ocean carriers continue acting according to form. They do not take into account dramatic changes in strategy, such as mass lay-ups, service consolidation and more hub and spoke operations.
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