A novel nonlinear ensemble forecasting model incorporating GLAR and ANN for foreign exchange rates

摘要

In this study, we propose a novel nonlinear ensemble forecasting model integrating generalized linear auto-regression (GLAR) with artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to obtain accurate prediction results and ameliorate forecasting performances. We compare the new model's performance with the two individual forecasting models―GLAR and ANN―as well as with the hybrid model and the linear combination models. Empirical results obtained reveal that the prediction using the nonlinear ensemble model is generally better than those obtained using the other models presented in this study in terms of the same evaluation measurements. Our findings reveal that the nonlinear ensemble model proposed here can be used as an alternative forecasting tool for exchange rates to achieve greater forecasting accuracy and improve prediction quality further.