Real-time Prediction Of Order Flowtimes Using Support Vector Regression

摘要

In a make-to-order production system, a due date must be assigned to new orders that arrive dynamically, which requires predicting the order flowtime in real-time. This study develops a support vector regression model for real-time flowtime prediction in multi-resource, multi-product systems. Several combinations of kernel and loss functions are examined, and results indicate that the linear kernel and the ε-insensitive loss function yield the best generalization performance. The prediction error of the support vector regression model for three different multi-resource systems of varying complexity is compared to that of classic time series models (exponential smoothing and moving average) and to a feedforward artificial neural network. Results show that the support vector regression model has lower flowtime prediction error and is more robust. More accurately predicting flowtime using support vector regression will improve due-date performance and reduce expenses in make-to-order production environments.