Risk averse sourcing in a stochastic supply chain: A simulation-optimization approach

摘要

A growing need for global sourcing has forced firms to manage more complex supply chains with increasing risks of supply disruptions. Multi sourcing is a common method to hedge against these risks. In the presence of demand uncertainties and supply disruptions, minimizing the downside risk is necessary. Hence, in this paper a new multi-period and scenario based supply chain model consists of a number of unreliable suppliers and a number of retailers is developed in the form of a multi-period newsvendor problem with a risk averse objective function. In the model, there are two types of retailers both faced uncertain demands: risk sensitive and risk neutral. Retailers have three choices to respond to the customer demand: a forward contract, and two option contracts include reserving a certain capacity in the secondary supplier and buying from the spot market. The problem has also developed as an agent-based system. As a solution approach in the large scale problem instances, a simulation-optimization algorithm is developed. Two kinds of heuristics are compared in order to optimize the simulation procedure: genetic algorithm and q-learning. Results showed the efficiency of the q learning algorithm.