Combining technology roadmap and system dynamics simulation to support scenario-planning: A case of car-sharing service

摘要

Due to the volatile market environment, the use of scenario approach comes to the forefront in business strategy. As a means of scenario planning, several approaches have been proposed and conducted. However, previous research, mainly having resorted to the expert judgment for planning and evaluation, still remains conceptual and lacks a systematic link to the planning process. In response, this paper provides an integrative approach to the technology roadmap and system dynamics to support scenario planning. The proposed approach consists of three parts: scenario building, technology roadmapping, and system dynamics simulation. The first step is to construct the scenarios which are used as inputs for the scenario planning. Second, technology roadmap is developed, incorporating the scenarios built in the first step. The technology roadmap works as a strategic framework to realize the hypothetical scenarios, linking the external and hypothetical business and internal strategies. Finally, the strategic model for technology roadmap is transferred to the operational viewpoint using system dynamics. When the simulation ends, the result of each scenario is reflected to the technology roadmapping, making the multi-path technology roadmapping. As an illustrative example, three scenarios of car-sharing business are developed and analyzed.