An improved gray interval forecast method and its application

摘要

The gray forecasting model has good performance on prediction for few and uncertain data. Although numerous gray forecasting models have been developed, the study on the gray interval forecasting is rare. This paper proposes a newly gray forecasting interval model based on optimization of classification method and construction of the gray interval. To illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of newly proposed method, it is applied to forecasting gray interval of passenger volume to Taiwan High Speed Rail. The numerical results indicate that newly proposed method has a better prediction performance than that of the other models.