Application of a free drift tactical ice forecast model in pack ice conditions

摘要

The extension of oil and gas exploration in High Arctic offshore locations will likely require floating drilling capability in the presence of high-concentration sea ice (pack ice) at the beginning and end of the open water season. The detection and drift forecasting of potentially unmanageable ice features (PUIF) will be key components of an ice management system designed to manage risk while drilling during pack ice intrusions. In September 2015 during the Oden Arctic Technology Research Cruise 2015 (OATRC 2015), an ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company (EMURC) free drift tactical ice forecast model designed to forecast the drift of individual ice floes in low concentration ice conditions was applied in near real-time to high concentration pack ice with predominant thicknesses of medium first-year ice in the Arctic Ocean. The description and application of the proposed ice drift forecast model is presented in this paper. In addition, forecast results are compared to drift data collected during OATRC 2015. It is shown that the free drift forecasting tool produces reasonably accurate and useful forecasts in the high concentration ice observed.