A Tactical Hindcast Calibration Method for Sea Ice Drift Forecasting in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

摘要

Safe and economic floating drilling operations in the high arcticdeepwater require enhanced stationkeeping capabilities. Icemanagement has been used as a means to improve station keepingability in the presence of drifting sea ice; however the reliability of icemanagement is highly dependent upon accurate ice drift forecasting.For example, decision to suspend drilling operations and/or disconnectin the event of an approaching unmanageable ice floe needs to be madewith sufficient time to permit an orderly shut-in of the well. This paperdemonstrates how a rigorous, physics-based hindcast approach can beapplied in operations to better understand the forcing mechanismsinvolved in sea ice drift dynamics. The method is demonstrated withinthe context of real ice drift data obtained in the Canadian Beaufort Seaduring the summer of 2011 and shows that clearly recognizableoceanographic phenomena such as mean dynamic topography andperiodic tides can be resolved from the drift data.