A Tactical Hindcast Calibration Method for Sea Ice Drift Forecasting in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

摘要

Safe and economic floating drilling operations in the high arctic deepwater require enhanced stationkeeping capabilities. Ice management has been used as a means to improve station keeping ability in the presence of drifting sea ice; however the reliability of ice management is highly dependent upon accurate ice drift forecasting. For example, decision to suspend drilling operations and/or disconnect in the event of an approaching unmanageable ice floe needs to be made with sufficient time to permit an orderly shut-in of the well. This paper demonstrates how a rigorous, physics-based hindcast approach can be applied in operations to better understand the forcing mechanisms involved in sea ice drift dynamics. The method is demonstrated within the context of real ice drift data obtained in the Canadian Beaufort Sea during the summer of 2011 and shows that clearly recognizable oceanographic phenomena such as mean dynamic topography and periodic tides can be resolved from the drift data.