Modelling urban air quality using artificial neural network

摘要

This paper describes the development of artificial neural network-based vehicular exhaust emission models for predicting 8-h average carbon monoxide concentrations at two air quality control regions (AQCRs) in the city of Delhi, India, viz. a typical traffic intersection (AQCR1) and a typical arterial road (AQCR2). Maximum of ten meteorological and six traffic characteristic variables have been used in the models formulation. Three scenarios were considered—considering both meteorological and traffic characteristics input parameters; only meteorological inputs; and only traffic characteristics input data. The performance of all the developed models was evaluated on the basis of index of agreement (d) and other statistical parameters, viz. the mean and the deviations of the observed and predicted concentrations, mean bias error, mean square error, systematic and unsystematic root mean square error, coefficient of determination and linear best fit constant and gradient (Willmott in B Am Meteorol Soc 63:1309, 1982). The forecast performance of the developed models, with meteorological and traffic characteristics (d=0.78 for AQCR1 and d=0.69 for AQCR2) and with only meteorological inputs (d=0.77 for AQCR1 and d=0.67 for AQCR2), were comparable with the measured data.