Sustainable development-oriented industrial restructuring modeling and analysis: a case study in Leshan

摘要

This article proposes a sustainable, low-carbon development-oriented industrial restructuring model for developing countries, which balances of environmental protection and economic growth. A case study for Leshan, a representative traditional industrial city in South West China, is given to illustrate the difficulties in accommodating economic and ecological development needs. Multi-objective planning techniques under a fuzzy random environment are used to calculate optimum industrial structure ratios, and a system dynamics-based industrial restructuring optimal model is designed to predict sustainable relationships between the environment, the economy, and society. The possible paths can take to achieve this target are presented and discussed using scenario analysis, after which the simulation results are discussed. Then, integrated policy proposals are suggested to meet the sustainability demands. This research provides more options for researchers and government policy makers in traditional industrial cities of developing countries.