A DECISION-SUPPORT METHODOLOGY FOR PERFORMANCE-BASED ASSET MANAGEMENT

摘要

A software-supported methodology for managing the performance of complex infrastructure systems is described. The infrastructure system is represented hierarchically, so that high level business decisions and more detailed operational decisions can be supported by the same methodology. Performance of each sub-system is captured by a set of Performance Indicators held in a database. Evidence of performance is assembled from all available sources, ranging from monitoring measurements and inspection records, design calculations and model studies to expert judgements, analogous cases and accounts of past failures. These Performance Indicators are projected through value functions reflecting organisational objectives and regulatory standards and are merged to generate a Figure of Merit for the system and each sub-system. Uncertainty in the available evidence is represented and propagated through the evidence hierarchy using Interval Probability Theory, providing a commentary on sources and implications of uncertainty in the decision. A case study of a hydro-electric reservoir system demonstrates how the approach can be used to provide a coherent overview of system performance and support asset management decision-making.