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Major Upturn? Nothing Is Imminent

机译:大好转?一切都迫在眉睫

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Global electronic equipment production growth continues-but definitely at a slower pace (Chart 1). Taiwan/China dipped to +13.2 percent three-month growth this July compared to+36.7 percent last October; the U.S. (+4.7 percent) and Europe (+7.6 percent) are in single digits; and Japan (-6.5 percent) is under water. Most prognosti-cators do not see a significant rebound until late 2009 or 2010. In the U.S., total electronic equipment orders have been relatively flat since early 2006 (Chart 2); however, the product mix is changing. Medical, measurement, and control equipment have remained strong and defense electronics has been a significant contributor. However, this July, domestic military electronic equipment orders plunged (Chart 3), thanks to very weak defense communication equipment bookings. Because the military sector is traditionally quite volatile, a modest August rebound is not unlikely.
机译:全球电子设备生产的增长仍在继续,但绝对会放缓(图1)。台湾/中国大陆7月份的三个月增长率下降了+ 13.2%,而去年10月为+ 36.7%。美国(+ 4.7%)和欧洲(+ 7.6%)均为个位数;日本(-6.5%)被淹。大多数预测人员要到2009年末或2010年才能看到显着的反弹。在美国,自2006年初以来,电子设备的总订单一直相对平稳(图2);但是,产品结构正在发生变化。医疗,测量和控制设备仍然保持强劲,国防电子产品是重要的贡献者。但是,由于国防通信设备的订购量非常少,今年7月,国内军用电子设备订单暴跌(图3)。由于军事部门传统上非常不稳定,因此8月份的反弹不太可能。

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