DRY-WET EVOLUTION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE DURING LAST 500 YEARS

摘要

Based on the historical records in Guangdong Province during the last 500a, the moist index sequence was reconstructed and analyzed by the correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and the power spectrum analysis. The results indicate that: 1) The El Nino events have evident correlations with the droughts happened in the west and north of Guangdong Province, which intensified the dryness and wetness distribution patterns in these areas in a certain degree. 2) Good correspondence relations exist among the moist index sequence, Greenland ice core oxygen isotope record and the winter-half-year temperature sequence in the eastern China, which showed an apparent monsoonal disposal pattern of moisture and temperature. 3) By applying the wavelet analysis to deal with the data, several apparent periodicities are revealed, among which some can be attributed to the solar activities. At the same time, the ENSO event, monsoon (especially the East Asian monsoon) activity and the human activity may also have some influences on the periodicities of the climatic changes in Guangdong Province. 4) Guangdong will persist in dry period before 2040 (±5 years) though some little waterlogged period will also exist in this interval, and after that great floods maybe take place in Guangdong. We think that the variety range of the dryness and wetness has increasing tendency in Guangdong Province in future several even hundred years.