Status of China's Refined Oil Products Consumption and Forecast on Demand During the '11th Five-Year Plan' Period

摘要

The author used two common methods in this industry, i. e. the "Consumption Coefficient Method" and the "Elasticity Coefficient Trend Method", to forecast the refined oil product demand in 2010. Through analyzing and comparing the two forecast results, it is projected that the demand for finished product oils in 2010 will be in the range of 220 to 240 million tons a year. In addition, out of concern about the total oil products consumption to exceed 600 million tons/year in 2020, the author puts forward suggestions and measures aimed at conservation of oil products and application of alternative fuels.