Development of interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models to predict the reproduction toxicity of EDCs to aquatic species

摘要

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) threaten the reproductive fitness of aquatic organisms at concentrations lower than those associated with longevity and development. However, the small number of aquatic species assessed for reproductive toxicity has limited the ecological risk assessment of EDCs, making sensible decisions more difficult. In response to this, interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models were established for EDCs to enable the estimation of reproduction toxicity values to a wider range of organisms. A total of 16 ICE models of EDCs for 6 surrogate species were statistically significant. Of the 16 models, 37.5% (6 models) had a cross-validation success rate 60%, with a relatively small model squared error, indicating that the model fit is robust. These model results implied that the action of EDCs for each species pair might involve the same mechanisms, and taxonomic relationships did not influence the prediction precision. The cross-validation success rate corroborated the consistency between the projected and experimental values for the EDC ICE models. Sixty-seven percent of the projected values fell within a 10-fold difference of the experimental data. The results indicated that a proven ICE model can greatly increase the amount of EDCs chronic toxicity data for predicted species, without the need for extensive animal experiments, thus providing substitute chronic toxicity data for rapid assessment of EDCs ecological risks. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.