Planning Assumptions: Are They Really Necessary and Valid?

摘要

We have seen mission-analysis briefings for years that include a slide titled "Facts and Assumptions." The facts (bearing on the problem) are generally easy to identify and make sense of, primarily because they are just that, facts - evidence that stands on its own merit and needs no other confirmation because it is provable. Assumptions, on the other hand, are not currently provable but are based on sound logic, high probability of occurrence and applicability to the problem set.However, it is common to dismiss many of the initial facts or assumptions because they are neither necessary nor valid once we look critically at them. This article expounds on the criteria of necessary and valid and proposes that the best venue for addressing assumptions is actually at the beginning of course-of-action (CoA) development rather than during the mission-analysis briefing.