Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2 degrees C target

摘要

Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russia's cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2 degrees C constraint. This is despite the IPCC reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions. Translating the global 2 degrees C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2 degrees C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionments. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2 degrees C, its 2011-2100 cumulative emissions should stay within 20-26 Gt CO2, commensurate with a 37-52% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C. If Russia continues to emit carbon dioxide at current annual levels, this budget will be spent by the mid-2020s. The carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonization, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.