Hub-and-spoke free trade areas: theory and evidence from Israel

摘要

We study how the sequential formation of free trade areas affects trade flows between member countries. In a three-country, three-good model of comparative advantage if two countries have an FTA, and both sign a similar agreement with the third, trade between the two decreases. However, if only one of them signs an additional FTA, a hub- and-spoke pattern arises, and trade between the initial members increases. Israel's experience lends strong support to our model: trade between Israel and the EU, subject to an FTA since 1975, increased by an additional 29% after the introduction of the US-Israel FTA in 1985.%On étudie comment la formation séquentielle de zones de libre échange affecte les flux commerciaux entre les pays membres. Dans un modèle d'avantage comparatif avec trois pays et trois biens, si deux pays ont un accord de libre échange et qu'ils signent t