I don't blame you for being weary of the media's Cassandra cries about the monster El Nino lurking of late in the Pacific. The warnings of heavy rainfall, though, did make me wary enough to get a new roof. And the prospect of parting with that much money got me thinking about how scientists predict El Ninos, those Brigadoons that emerge from the tropics every few years with climatic consequences that reverberate around the globe. What technique's have been devised, and how reliable are they?
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