The Tea Leaves That Matter to the Fed

摘要

The monthly report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on payroll employment has become one of the most watched statistics. Thus, the increase by 308, 000 jobs in the March report, the best one-month performance since April, 2000, caused a stir. Stocks rose, and bond prices fell sharply. The higher interest rates reversed the declines that followed February's weak report. One reason for the focus on the payroll numbers is the political as well as economic concern over the sluggish labor market. Despite the strong recent performance of real gross domestic product (GDP), payroll employment growth has been weak. Since the start of the recession in March, 2001, payroll employment has fallen by 2 million jobs, even after the surge last month and the upward adjustments for previous months.