Hopes for the New Year Aren't Just Sentimental

摘要

For the first time in four years, the economy is heading into a new year on a solid., broadly based foundation that is generating great expectations for 2004. Will those hopes be validated? On that question, the data at the close of 2003 are undeniable: The economy's momentum is real, and it will continue to build into early 2004. In BusinessWeek's annual survey, economists project that real gross domestic product will grow 4.3% in the first quarter and 4.1% for the year (page 70). This new energy shouldn't be surprising, for two fundamental reasons. First, the economy's underlying ability to grow will always reassert itself. And second, this time around, that force was propelled by record low interest rates and massive, quickly enacted tax cuts. Indeed, one of the key lessons of 2003 is: Policy works.