Too Much Money

摘要

Savings. it's an almost mystical word for economists-the Holy Grail of growth. The more a country saves, the more it has available to invest. And the more it invests—in computers, factories, or infrastructure—the more productive its economy becomes and the faster it can grow. From this perspective, most economists have judged the U.S. and found it wanting. With American households putting away only 0.9% of their income in savings and with politicians apparently helpless to eliminate the federal budget deficit, the U.S. seemed to be setting itself up for years of rising interest rates, subpar investment, and sluggish economic growth. But that's not what is happening. Long-term interest rates are falling and have now dipped below 4%. The total of residential and business investment has been rising and now stands at 16.5% of gross domestic product, well above the average for the 1990s. And there are few signs that the economy is stalling. These surprising events are forcing economists, investors, and policymakers to think more globally than ever before. In just the past few months, they've begun to consider seriously two intertwined and heretical notions: What really matters for interest rates is the global economy, and there the problem may be too much savings, rather than too little.