A RESURGENT ASIA WILL LEAD THE GLOBAL RECOVERY

摘要

Two years ago, decoupling was all the rage. It was the notion that, because of rapid economic progress outside the U.S., the world was no longer dependent on the U.S. for growth. The theory came crashing down as the U.S. recession turned into a global rout. Now the idea is making a comeback. In past global recoveries, the U.S. has always been the locomotive of growth, as resurgent demand forrnforeign-made goods helped to revive overseas manufacturers. This time, the leadership is coming from the East, especially China and other emerging-market economies in Asia.rnThe pattern is evident in the latest U.S. trade data. Through May, imports continued to fall. They will stay subdued for some time, as U.S. consumers remain shackled by weak labor markets and the need to save more. U. S. exports, however, are now steadying after last year's plunge, and a sharp advance in shipments to China and other Asian nations is the chief reason for the stabilization. Since January, exports to all of Asia, excluding Japan, have jumped 22%, accounting for 75% of the pickup in U.S. exports (chart).