ECONOMICS & POLICY

摘要

The recent bull market-yes, Virginia, it is a real live bull market, with the S&P 500 up 33% from its Mar. 9 low as of June 24-has investors worrying about whether there's enough genuine recovery out there to sustain the run. It's not surprising that confusion reigns, as signals seem diabolically mixed. Start with global forecasts: On June 22 the World Bank warned that global output could shrink this year by 2.9% rather than the 1.7% it previously predicted, which helped send stocks down sharply. But on June 24, the OECD boosted its forecast for the global and U.S. economies, saying the U.S. will contract 2.8% this year and grow 0.9% in 2010-and the S&P racked up a small gain. Or take housing: Sales of existing U.S. homes rose in May for the second straight month, while new-home sales sank by 0.6%. Durable goods orders jumped 1.8% in May, bettering expectations of a bounceback.