Is the U.S. Condemned by History to Slow Growth?

摘要

On Oct. 8 the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2013, from 3.9 percent to 3.6 percent. The fund also warned of an "alarmingly high" chance that growth would slip below 2 percent next year. The number crunchers at the IMF, like most economic forecasters, rely on the basic assumption that over time, growth will do what it always has done: It will trend upward, and the ups will be greater than the downs. A group of economists who take the long view of history-a very, very long view-are now challenging the conventional wisdom.