What Really Matters

摘要

Every candidate on the ballot in the midterm elections has the same goal: capturing at least half of the votes cast. Campaign tacticians often call it the "win number." Even in states where strong third-party candidates mean someone can win with less than 50 percent, the figure still holds a magical allure because it gives politicians the thing they crave most after a victory-a mandate. The math of any campaign starts with the party base. That's the number of voters a candidate can take for granted, people certain to cast their ballots without any external prodding. The work of a campaign is to bridge the gap between the base voter pool and the win number. There are two ways to do that: increase turnout, or persuade voters to switch sides. Bloomberg worked with Clarity Campaign Labs and TargetSmart Communications, two Democratic-aligned voter analytics and targeting companies, to analyze the electoral math that candidates face in the seven most competitive Senate races. These states are where control of the chamber, and the national politics of the next two years, will be decided: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, and North Carolina.