What's Baked Into the Market?

摘要

Pundits who wouldn't know baking soda from baking powder love to talk about what's "baked into" the market. Is a Biden victory baked in? Is a second wave of Covid-19 cases baked in? In one recent week, Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Intelligence used "baked in" in stories about a Rhode Island construction company's 401(k) plan, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, and the earnings forecasts of United Internet AG. "Baked in" is just traders' lingo for "expected." If the stock market collectively expects former Vice President Joe Biden to win the election, then prices of stocks have already adjusted to reflect that expectation. You, the clueless latecomer, can't make any money by betting on a Biden victory, because others have beaten you to it. Markets are, in a word, efficient. In baking terms, the hypotheti-cal Biden victory isn't a new ingredient. It's already in there with the eggs and flour and baking powder (or is that baking soda?).