Q&A

摘要

How difficult is it to do forecasts now?One is doing scenarios as opposed to forecasts, because there are very different scenarios whether we have a smooth transition to a deeper trade relationship with the European Union versus whether we have no deal. You can't just take those two scenarios and do the average and say that's what's going to happen.This entrenched uncertainty aboutthe future of the trade relationship is having a consequence for business investment: We think the level is about 25% below where it would have been otherwise.What about the global economy? How does that affect things?Well, the global economy is going to weigh on this regardless. The big questions we're all asking at [the IMF and World Bank] meetings are these: Are we stabilizing the global economy as a whole? Is macro policy right? Globally, is there enough monetary stimulus? Is fiscal going to come in too? There's been quite a lot of volatility in the pound because of Brexit.