Market forecast

摘要

Tender Price Index Prices continued their upward trend in the fourth quarter, rising another 1.3% over the previous three months. The Tender Price Index shows that prices in Greater London have risen 4% over the past year. Increases in labour rates have been restrained by a continuing improvement in supply; materials price rises have been passed on in full; management and other preliminaries costs have risen. Workload in London is likely to increase next year: tender price inflation is set to increase to 4-5%. Building Cost Index The Building Cost Index rose 6.6% over the year to the fourth quarter 2005. This reflects the substantial pay rise for building operatives last June and an annual rise of 2.2% in materials prices. The 2006 wage award has not yet been negotiated but materials prices are expected to rise higher than last year (see page 66): the BCI is forecast to rise 3.9% over the year to 4Q06. Retail Prices Index The Retail Prices Index increased 2.2% over the year to December, the lowest annual figure since October 2002. The Consumer Prices Index rose 2%, down from 2.5% in September. The CPI is now exactly in line with Treasury aims. Gordon Brown forecasts that the index will fall to 1.75% by the end of 2006 before coming back into line at 2% in 2007.