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Improved method for estimating the probability of extreme events

机译:估计极端事件概率的改进方法

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摘要

Extreme events, such as storms, floods and earthquakes have always been disastrous to civilizations. Communities prepare for them by rigid constructions, flood banks, drainage channels and avoiding building at hazardous locations. For all such preparations, being able to estimate the probability of hazardous extremes is crucial. The estimation is based on the statistics of previously observed extremes, studied by so-called extreme value analysis. Many extreme value analysis methods exist and it has not been clear which of them should be preferred.
机译:极端事件,例如暴风雨,洪水和地震,一直对文明造成灾难性影响。社区通过刚性建筑,防洪堤,排水渠和避免在危险场所建房来为他们做好准备。对于所有此类准备工作,能够估计出极端危险的可能性至关重要。该估计基于先前观察到的极端情况的统计数据,并通过所谓的极端值分析进行研究。存在许多极值分析方法,尚不清楚应首选哪种方法。

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