Causation, Decision Theory, and Bell’s Theorem: A Quantum Analogue of the Newcomb Problem

摘要

I apply some of the lessons from quantum theory, in particular from Bell’s theorem, to andebate on the foundations of decision theory and causation. By tracing a formal analogynbetween the basic assumptions of causal decision theory (CDT)—which was developednpartly in response to Newcomb’s problem—and those of a local hidden variable theorynin the context of quantum mechanics, I show that an agent who acts according to CDTnand gives any nonzero credence to some possible causal interpretations underlying quan-ntum phenomena should bet against quantum mechanics in some feasible game scenariosninvolving entangled systems, no matter what evidence they acquire. As a consequence,neither the most accepted version of decision theory is wrong, or it provides a practicalndistinction, in terms of the prescribed behaviour of rational agents, between some meta-nphysical hypotheses regarding the causal structure underlying quantum mechanics.