Statistical evaluation of Ips typographus population density: a useful tool in protected areas and conservation-oriented forestry

摘要

Ips typographus (Col., Curculionidae, Scolytinae) occurring on Picea abies stems is a species characterised by large fluctuations in population numbers and causing frequent outbreaks. In protected areas, I. typographus is regarded as a sensitive bioindicator responsive to changes in forest health and vitality. In conservation-oriented forestry, attention is being paid to the ecological value of I. typographus beetles as ecosystem engineers and keystone species, driving forest natural regeneration and conversion. Despite many publications devoted to I. typographus, no accurate method for estimating the population density of this species has been developed. The objective of this study was to develop a statistical method for estimating I. typographus population density that enables calculation of estimation errors. The proposed method consists of two parts: tree-level analyses and stand-level analyses. Part one allows calculation of the total density of I. typographus infestation of each of P. abies selected stem (after selecting sample windfalls), part two allows estimation of the mean total infestation density of the stem in the area investigated. Linear regression functions were applied to part one and survey sampling to part two. The method is only marginally invasive because it involves debarking of one 0.5 m-long stem section on maximum 50 P. abies windfalls (trap trees can optionally be used). The developed method was employed to assess I. typographus population density in the Świętokrzyskie Mountains in Central Poland in an area of ca. 4,000 ha. In 2010, in the area investigated, the mean total I. typographus infestation density of the P. abies stem was 440.6 maternal galleries/m2 (from 358.7 to 522.6 maternal galleries/m2 with α = 0.05; the relative error of estimation was 18.6%). The examined I. typographus population was in a progradation phase. The proposed method can be used in nature reserves, national parks and managed forests, mainly for scientific purposes.