Fuzzy duration forecast model for wind turbine construction project subject to the impact of wind uncertainty

摘要

Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy and wind farm is globally constructed for sustainable development. However, wind could produce adverse effects on some wind-sensitive tasks of wind turbine construction projects. Due to limited understanding of how wind may influence productivity in wind turbine construction project, this research presents a fuzzy duration forecast model for wind turbine construction project subject to the impact of wind uncertainty. Through the use of Beaufort scale, professional expertise, and fuzzy membership functions, the productivity loss (PL) subject to various Beaufort scale of wind can be analyzed. With historical wind speed data incorporated, the duration can be simulated and forecasted by the model. Besides, the practicality of the model is demonstrated by an actual wind turbine construction project. The findings from this research are very useful in allocating schedule risk for wind turbine construction projects where wind uncertainty arises. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.