首页> 外文期刊>Australian Economic History Review: An Asia-Pacific Journal of Economic, Business & Social History >TURNING POINTS IN THE CHINESE CIVIL WAR: A FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE
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TURNING POINTS IN THE CHINESE CIVIL WAR: A FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE

机译:中国民国战争的转折点:金融市场的观点

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This paper provides a quantitative assessment of contemporary beliefs about 'turning points' that shaped the outcome of the Chinese Civil War (1946-49). We employ an endogenous structural break method relying on a novel data set to exploit breakpoints in the daily price quotes of Chinese sovereign bonds traded on the London market. As late as spring 1947, the London market evidently believed there was a reasonable chance of either the Kuomintang Party winning the war or alternatively achieving a peace agreement. The timing of our major breakpoints generally correspond with the dates of well-known events deemed as important turning points. Caveats exist, however. In particular, some events - for example the Liu-Deng expedition - stand out where we observe stark contrasts between the perceptions held by contemporaries and historians.
机译:本文提供了对当代有关“转折点”的信念的定量评估,这些信念影响了中国内战(1946-49)的结果。我们采用一种内在的结构性折损方法,该方法依靠一种新颖的数据集来利用在伦敦市场上交易的中国主权债券的每日价格报价中的折点。直到1947年春,伦敦市场显然认为,国民党有可能赢得战争或达成和平协议。我们主要断点的时间通常与被视为重要转折点的众所周知事件的日期相对应。但是,存在警告。特别是某些事件,例如刘登远征队,在我们观察到当代人和历史学家所持观念之间形成鲜明对比的地方显得尤为突出。

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