Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

摘要

The performance of the combination of the FALL3D ash dispersion model with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) meteorological model in the southern cone of South America under two initial and boundary conditions was evaluated. ERA-Interim and NCEP-GFS datasets were used as dynamic conditions by WRF to simulate meteorological fields for FALL3D. As a study case, we used the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Volcanic Complex occurred in Chile in June 2011. The simulated meteorological results were compared with the horizontal wind direction, meridional and zonal wind components, air and dew point temperatures of 7 radio sounding stations using a set of error indicators. In addition, the ash mass load simulated by FALL3D for a day of maximum dispersion of volcanic ash was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, on which the Prata algorithm was applied. As well as this, the WRF-dominant physical processes with both dynamic conditions were analyzed for that same date.